Why being a Lib Dem MP is no job for life I have been having a play about on SPSS which is a statistical package used for data analysis and I was looking at the results for the Lib Dems at the last election and I think there is cause to suggest that the results make bleak reading for soon to be ex MP John Leech and other wastrel Lib Dem parliamentary squatters.

I was told once by a Labour hack who shall remain nameless that all soon to be ex MP John Leech had to do was ride a wave of anti government feeling and he shall have a job for life. Not sure it even had to be a Labour government just as long as it wasn't a Lib Dem one. I suppose the thinking behind it was they could follow the same negative campaigning style once in parliament as they had pursued as as a mere candidate seeking election.

The problem for the Lib Dems is that the results of the last general election show that it isn't that successful at all. In fact if you take out the by election winners and the MP's standing down for retirement with new candidates, basically if you just take Lib Dem MP's seeking relection MORE THAN HALF actually got a smaller percentage of the vote in 2005 than in 2001. Indeed four lost their seats in an election that saw the Lib Dems increase there number of seats overall.

Basically the data shows that the Lib Dems are more effective in seats where they are challengers than where they are incumbents. In the vast majority of seats where they just put up a candidate to say they are a national party but really didn't do much work there vote generally went up a bit based on the national picture. I don't like to admit it but the Lib Dems can be very effective campaigners. But they are not as good as they or we think they are once they hold a seat. Primarily this is because the voters have a higher expecation of MP's than candidates as they are afterall the people with the power and they are expected to get things done and since when has a Lib Dem MP got anything done?

This is the list of useless Lib Dems parliamentary squatters that the voters were less than impressed with as the percentage of the vote they got went down.

Norman Baker, Tom Brake, Malcolm Bruce, Paul Burstow, Edward Davey, Don Foster, Andrew George, Sandra Gidley, Mike Hancock, Evan Harris, Paul Holmes, Simon Hughes, Michael Moore, Mark Oaten, Adrian Sanders, Matthew Taylor, Steve Webb.

And these are the non by election people who lost their seats along with their previous majorities.

Sue Doughty 538 , Matthew Green 1630, David Rendel 2415, Brian Cotter 338.

Soon to be ex MP John Leech's majority today 667.

Shortly there will be a post on how the Lib Dems could easily get kicked out of 20 seats next time including the future Labour gain Manchester Withington.  ¶ 5:48 pm