Saturday, January 20, 2007
Space: China's final frontier
So China has successfully launched an anti satellite missile at an old weather satellite. What does this mean for peace and security? Today not a lot but it will change all our futures. It is the most serious Chinese challenge yet to American’s superpower status.
American hegemony is in large part based on the most powerful military machine humanity has ever known. Its power comes not through its sheer strength of numbers which given it global mission are relatively small but from the advanced nature of its military technology. Satellites are a vital part of the US military machine in several spheres. Intelligence, national missile defence, navigation and communications are key areas where the US has a significant military advantage from its use of space. China’ successful development of anti satellite technology is a challenge to American dominance to which it can only respond.
There is a debate in the US military establishment about what is the greater threat to US interests Al Qaeda or the Chinese? Bin laden may be more willing to attack America but he does not pose the more significant long term threat that China could. This missile launch will add to case of the Pentagon sinophobes. The Chinese military have been undergoing a period of extensive modernisation including expensive shopping trips for advanced military technology especially from Russia. China has again pressed for the lifting of the EU arms embargo on China imposed as a result of the Tiananmen Square massacre it was rebuffed but if China seeks to improve its human rights record this could change.
The greatest objective of Chinese policy is the continuation of the present Chinese Communist Party regime. They don’t care what they do as long at they retain power. I argue that excessive military rivalry with the US increases the likelihood of a catastrophic failure, either war or economic collapse, that could threaten Communist rule. The international community should try to engage China in a web of mutually benefitial arangements, whether it is the proposed free trade zone with the ASEAN or increased the Sino US economic dialogue. The aim should be to increase the costs of war and decrease the costs of peace. I for one am an optimist that we can find workable solution that will prevent a new cold war.
The great powers have increasingly seen over the last 20 years that cooperation not confrontation is the only way forward in international relations. China’s emergence to centre stage in the international arena will test this resolve but it is a test that we must overcome. ¶ 2:50 pm
American hegemony is in large part based on the most powerful military machine humanity has ever known. Its power comes not through its sheer strength of numbers which given it global mission are relatively small but from the advanced nature of its military technology. Satellites are a vital part of the US military machine in several spheres. Intelligence, national missile defence, navigation and communications are key areas where the US has a significant military advantage from its use of space. China’ successful development of anti satellite technology is a challenge to American dominance to which it can only respond.
There is a debate in the US military establishment about what is the greater threat to US interests Al Qaeda or the Chinese? Bin laden may be more willing to attack America but he does not pose the more significant long term threat that China could. This missile launch will add to case of the Pentagon sinophobes. The Chinese military have been undergoing a period of extensive modernisation including expensive shopping trips for advanced military technology especially from Russia. China has again pressed for the lifting of the EU arms embargo on China imposed as a result of the Tiananmen Square massacre it was rebuffed but if China seeks to improve its human rights record this could change.
The greatest objective of Chinese policy is the continuation of the present Chinese Communist Party regime. They don’t care what they do as long at they retain power. I argue that excessive military rivalry with the US increases the likelihood of a catastrophic failure, either war or economic collapse, that could threaten Communist rule. The international community should try to engage China in a web of mutually benefitial arangements, whether it is the proposed free trade zone with the ASEAN or increased the Sino US economic dialogue. The aim should be to increase the costs of war and decrease the costs of peace. I for one am an optimist that we can find workable solution that will prevent a new cold war.
The great powers have increasingly seen over the last 20 years that cooperation not confrontation is the only way forward in international relations. China’s emergence to centre stage in the international arena will test this resolve but it is a test that we must overcome. ¶ 2:50 pm
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China has had about 150 nuclear weapons as its small nuclear deterrence force for a long time, compared to the U.S. & Russia having about 9,000 each for deterrence.
I think this might simply be China looking to stick with a small nuclear deterrence force, in the face of the development of better satellite surveillance and the U.S. anti-missile system in Alaska which would make China's force susceptible to a successful first-strike.
I think it's quite possible the Chinese nuclear planners are faced with the alternative of a bigger nuclear second-strike force, or demonstrating anti-satellite systems would work. Which alternative would you prefer?
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I think this might simply be China looking to stick with a small nuclear deterrence force, in the face of the development of better satellite surveillance and the U.S. anti-missile system in Alaska which would make China's force susceptible to a successful first-strike.
I think it's quite possible the Chinese nuclear planners are faced with the alternative of a bigger nuclear second-strike force, or demonstrating anti-satellite systems would work. Which alternative would you prefer?
# posted by 
: 10:31 pm
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