Saturday, January 13, 2007
Bush plan for Iraq doesn't even convince his strongest supporters
The American Enterprise Institute is closely associated with the Bush Administration yet even they don't think that the President's plan to pacify Iraq will work. Bush wants to send just over 20,000 extra troops to Iraq to sort things out there but this will be nowhere near enough.
The AEI report available here looks at the numbers of troops based on experience the Americans will need.
"securing the Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods around the Green Zone and between that area and Baghdad International Airport/Camp Victory. This approach establishes security among a population of perhaps 2 million people, (About a third of the city,never mind the rest of Iraq) would require, according to historical norms, between 40,000 and 50,000 counterinsurgent troops. Generating proper force ratios to secure the population in these neighborhoods is much more feasible than generating the force ratios to confront the Jaysh al Mahdi in Sadr City or to secure the entire population of Baghdad at once. " P16
Ok if you factor in some good Iraqi troops not that there are very many of those with the extra troops Bush is sending you could secure about a third of Baghdad. This is so not looking good. Put another way the Bush plan is doomed to failure. It may have some good points about increased reconstruction but with the numbers of troops that they have they will never be able to achieve the neccessary level of security that will be managable, post any Allied exit from Iraq, by the useless Iraqi government forces. ¶ 8:16 pm
The AEI report available here looks at the numbers of troops based on experience the Americans will need.
"securing the Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods around the Green Zone and between that area and Baghdad International Airport/Camp Victory. This approach establishes security among a population of perhaps 2 million people, (About a third of the city,never mind the rest of Iraq) would require, according to historical norms, between 40,000 and 50,000 counterinsurgent troops. Generating proper force ratios to secure the population in these neighborhoods is much more feasible than generating the force ratios to confront the Jaysh al Mahdi in Sadr City or to secure the entire population of Baghdad at once. " P16
Ok if you factor in some good Iraqi troops not that there are very many of those with the extra troops Bush is sending you could secure about a third of Baghdad. This is so not looking good. Put another way the Bush plan is doomed to failure. It may have some good points about increased reconstruction but with the numbers of troops that they have they will never be able to achieve the neccessary level of security that will be managable, post any Allied exit from Iraq, by the useless Iraqi government forces. ¶ 8:16 pm
