Friday, December 29, 2006
The China Challenge
The international system is an almalgam of its base elements. Economic power, military might, ,ideological paradigm and war shape the system in which states operate. The emergence of China as a great economic power will define much of the landscape of international relations in the coming decades. Double digit economic growth has, in a generation, developed the world's fourth largest economy, while itsmilitary spending is outstriped only by the Unites States. Chinese Communist Party rule is anathema to western democratic values but with unparralelled economic growth looks set to continue.
I argue that growing Chinese power represents a series of five challenges to the international community. Firstly there is the challenge of economic competition and the related challenge of increased Chinese demand for energy supplies when we are entering a period of there globalscarcity. Further there are the challenges of the environment and human rights. Finally China'smilitary development is inescapable.
Economics
Opponants of globalisation argue it will create a race to the bottom in workers conditions.In summary I reject this. Cheap manufactured goods from China have been a benefit to the UK especially in terms of keeping inflation low and reducing living costs especially for thepoorest. Where else can we get £4 jeans. The indesputbale logic of the theory of comparative advantage means that national economies will become increasingly specialised, concentrating on what they do best. This is not to argue that globalisation is a pain free gain as anyone whose job has been exported will know. The challenge for us though is to win the race to the top. Economic competition from China doesn't create an imperative to reduce government expenditure rather the imperative is to invest in our supply of human capital. This means that we haveto turn the rhetoric of life long learning into a credible reality. I propose life long learning accounts worth £500 per year to be used for any educational purpose. This entitlement may be saved from year to year to afford more expensive courses. So rather than being opposed to social democracy globalisation can be used as a force that promotes the welfare state.
Energy demand
The exceptional economic growth of the chinese economy is increasing demand for energy in order to fuel it. As the Chinese Communist Party is well aware that continuing the boom is very important to maintaining its hold on power so ensuring the supply of energy has become a a major driver to it's foreign policy in many areas of the world. In central asia it has set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to spread chinese influence in an energy rich part of the world also being courted by the US. China has just held a summit for all african leaders and it is also challenging US domination of South America. There is also state support in the form of soft loans from state banks to Chinese oil companies.If your an energy supplier the thing the chinese give you is options. Don't like all that talk about human rights from the western states, try China they wont trouble you on that is the
basic message. The sooner the world moves away from the oil economy the better it will be and states that move in this direction first will be the biggest gainers.
Environment
With a roughly a quarter of the world's population many who are fast attaining western levels of consumption it is vital that China sign up to a successor to Kyoto. They will no doubt argue that the west was able to develop without such restrictions so why should they be subject to them. It's a perfectly fair point but climate change is happening now, it represents a very serious threat to world security and economic growth. We should sweeten the pill with technology transfer and maintain diplomatic pressure by being tough on trade issues if they don't want to play ball on the environment.It is also pertinant to bear in mind it is in the national interest of the Chinese as they are already experiencing problems of watersupply, desertification and significant levels of pollution. The smartest thing an environmental NGO could be doing at the moment is translating its published material into Chinese.
Human Rights
The sad reality for the neocons is that we can't invade China and impose western liberal democracy. For one thing they already have nuclear weapons and Iraq shows it doesn't work anyway even if they haven't. Economic growth will create a class of people who have power not under the control of the state at some stage these people will want a say in how the country is governed.We should in return for foreign investment demand that the Chinese courts system is fair and impartial in order not only to protect our own investments but also to limit unaccountable state power which is a neccessary precondition for a proper democratic system to take hold.We should also talk about Chinese human rights abuses. We should talk about Tibet, we should
talk about organ harvesting and we should follow that up with a rant about press freedom.What we should not forget that there have been many powerful and totalitarian regimes in history they all come to an end eventually. The Chinese Communist Party might seem powerful at the moment but ever since Tiannamen Square they have always been on the back foot. Economic growth may be insulating them now but should that fail their hold on power is less certain than
many assume it to be.
Military development
From a UK perspective I don't think that we should be overly concerned about the miliary capabilities of the people's republic. Even if they do develop a blue water navy I dont think they will be sailing up the Thames any time soon. The Chinese leadership may be many things but stupid is not on of them so they aren't going to create a major war anytime soon as this would endanger the economy which is the foundation of their rule. The United States should be more concerned. It's links with Tiawan put it in a very dangerous position. Recent Chinese military strategy has seen them upgrade there armed forces somewhat, especially from Russian sourcesand the configuration that they have suggests that Tiawan is their main target. I would argue the European Union should not lift the arms embargo it imposed on China
in 1989
Conclusion
The $64,000 question is what will happen in the event of an economic crash in China. Predictions of the end of the business cycle has been proved wrong many times before. Hopefully the Chinese leadership are smart enough not to let there economy overheat so much that we have an asian Wall Street Crash and another world depression. We also have to address how the Chinese economy is reconciled with environmental stability and we should be liberal about poking our nose in Chinese business as China's attitude on the environment will have significant effects on the rest of the world.
The great hope of western democrats is that China will become a stable multi party democracy. Personally I dont think it is going to come about any time soon but should it happen it raises an interesting possibility. This is because it won't be until China is a properly functioning democracy that the international system will be able to move away from power politics to a more democratic form of governance which would be the biggest change since the beginnings of the states system. ¶ 7:26 pm
I argue that growing Chinese power represents a series of five challenges to the international community. Firstly there is the challenge of economic competition and the related challenge of increased Chinese demand for energy supplies when we are entering a period of there globalscarcity. Further there are the challenges of the environment and human rights. Finally China'smilitary development is inescapable.
Economics
Opponants of globalisation argue it will create a race to the bottom in workers conditions.In summary I reject this. Cheap manufactured goods from China have been a benefit to the UK especially in terms of keeping inflation low and reducing living costs especially for thepoorest. Where else can we get £4 jeans. The indesputbale logic of the theory of comparative advantage means that national economies will become increasingly specialised, concentrating on what they do best. This is not to argue that globalisation is a pain free gain as anyone whose job has been exported will know. The challenge for us though is to win the race to the top. Economic competition from China doesn't create an imperative to reduce government expenditure rather the imperative is to invest in our supply of human capital. This means that we haveto turn the rhetoric of life long learning into a credible reality. I propose life long learning accounts worth £500 per year to be used for any educational purpose. This entitlement may be saved from year to year to afford more expensive courses. So rather than being opposed to social democracy globalisation can be used as a force that promotes the welfare state.
Energy demand
The exceptional economic growth of the chinese economy is increasing demand for energy in order to fuel it. As the Chinese Communist Party is well aware that continuing the boom is very important to maintaining its hold on power so ensuring the supply of energy has become a a major driver to it's foreign policy in many areas of the world. In central asia it has set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to spread chinese influence in an energy rich part of the world also being courted by the US. China has just held a summit for all african leaders and it is also challenging US domination of South America. There is also state support in the form of soft loans from state banks to Chinese oil companies.If your an energy supplier the thing the chinese give you is options. Don't like all that talk about human rights from the western states, try China they wont trouble you on that is the
basic message. The sooner the world moves away from the oil economy the better it will be and states that move in this direction first will be the biggest gainers.
Environment
With a roughly a quarter of the world's population many who are fast attaining western levels of consumption it is vital that China sign up to a successor to Kyoto. They will no doubt argue that the west was able to develop without such restrictions so why should they be subject to them. It's a perfectly fair point but climate change is happening now, it represents a very serious threat to world security and economic growth. We should sweeten the pill with technology transfer and maintain diplomatic pressure by being tough on trade issues if they don't want to play ball on the environment.It is also pertinant to bear in mind it is in the national interest of the Chinese as they are already experiencing problems of watersupply, desertification and significant levels of pollution. The smartest thing an environmental NGO could be doing at the moment is translating its published material into Chinese.
Human Rights
The sad reality for the neocons is that we can't invade China and impose western liberal democracy. For one thing they already have nuclear weapons and Iraq shows it doesn't work anyway even if they haven't. Economic growth will create a class of people who have power not under the control of the state at some stage these people will want a say in how the country is governed.We should in return for foreign investment demand that the Chinese courts system is fair and impartial in order not only to protect our own investments but also to limit unaccountable state power which is a neccessary precondition for a proper democratic system to take hold.We should also talk about Chinese human rights abuses. We should talk about Tibet, we should
talk about organ harvesting and we should follow that up with a rant about press freedom.What we should not forget that there have been many powerful and totalitarian regimes in history they all come to an end eventually. The Chinese Communist Party might seem powerful at the moment but ever since Tiannamen Square they have always been on the back foot. Economic growth may be insulating them now but should that fail their hold on power is less certain than
many assume it to be.
Military development
From a UK perspective I don't think that we should be overly concerned about the miliary capabilities of the people's republic. Even if they do develop a blue water navy I dont think they will be sailing up the Thames any time soon. The Chinese leadership may be many things but stupid is not on of them so they aren't going to create a major war anytime soon as this would endanger the economy which is the foundation of their rule. The United States should be more concerned. It's links with Tiawan put it in a very dangerous position. Recent Chinese military strategy has seen them upgrade there armed forces somewhat, especially from Russian sourcesand the configuration that they have suggests that Tiawan is their main target. I would argue the European Union should not lift the arms embargo it imposed on China
in 1989
Conclusion
The $64,000 question is what will happen in the event of an economic crash in China. Predictions of the end of the business cycle has been proved wrong many times before. Hopefully the Chinese leadership are smart enough not to let there economy overheat so much that we have an asian Wall Street Crash and another world depression. We also have to address how the Chinese economy is reconciled with environmental stability and we should be liberal about poking our nose in Chinese business as China's attitude on the environment will have significant effects on the rest of the world.
The great hope of western democrats is that China will become a stable multi party democracy. Personally I dont think it is going to come about any time soon but should it happen it raises an interesting possibility. This is because it won't be until China is a properly functioning democracy that the international system will be able to move away from power politics to a more democratic form of governance which would be the biggest change since the beginnings of the states system. ¶ 7:26 pm
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An interesting, useful and informed article, clearly the Chinese question is now and is an essential topic for study.
The Chinese neo imperial economic penetration of Africa is fast destroying markets and independent industrial sectors on the continent; flooding markets with cheap and poorly produced goods. Whilst, exported manufactured goods to European economies tend to be better quality but still undermines local industry. And lets not forget many well known brand names are also part of the sweat shop system in China.
I suspect the CCP is living on borrowed time and that new political forces may succeed in challenging and overthrowing communist rule. Remember many of the cheap exported products are being produced by cheap labour in sweat shops leaving aside the importance of the sweatshops of the PLA and the prison system.
Sooner or later the pressures for change will overcome state and party oppression.
The Chinese neo imperial economic penetration of Africa is fast destroying markets and independent industrial sectors on the continent; flooding markets with cheap and poorly produced goods. Whilst, exported manufactured goods to European economies tend to be better quality but still undermines local industry. And lets not forget many well known brand names are also part of the sweat shop system in China.
I suspect the CCP is living on borrowed time and that new political forces may succeed in challenging and overthrowing communist rule. Remember many of the cheap exported products are being produced by cheap labour in sweat shops leaving aside the importance of the sweatshops of the PLA and the prison system.
Sooner or later the pressures for change will overcome state and party oppression.
Infanticide is the starting point of human rights abuses.
Often absent from discussions about human rights abuse in China is gendercide, as an estimated 1.7 million baby girls are "missing" in China each year. Often, tens of thousands abandoned babies die in state-controlled orphanages, and the government of the People's Republic of China had stated that it had no resources to support "surplus population."
The gap in boy-girl ratio is growing particularly in regions where the one-child policy results in the traditional favoring of boys.
With the upcoming Olympics 2008, Western attention is often turned to Chinese activists being imprisoned, unfair wages being paid to laborers building the Olympics facilities, Chinese juveniles in the court system, AIDS patients going untreated--and the fast trade in organ harvesting. But over a million babies being abandoned or killed? There is rarely a mention of them.
Talia Carner
Author, China Doll
www.TaliaCarner.com.
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Often absent from discussions about human rights abuse in China is gendercide, as an estimated 1.7 million baby girls are "missing" in China each year. Often, tens of thousands abandoned babies die in state-controlled orphanages, and the government of the People's Republic of China had stated that it had no resources to support "surplus population."
The gap in boy-girl ratio is growing particularly in regions where the one-child policy results in the traditional favoring of boys.
With the upcoming Olympics 2008, Western attention is often turned to Chinese activists being imprisoned, unfair wages being paid to laborers building the Olympics facilities, Chinese juveniles in the court system, AIDS patients going untreated--and the fast trade in organ harvesting. But over a million babies being abandoned or killed? There is rarely a mention of them.
Talia Carner
Author, China Doll
www.TaliaCarner.com.
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